{"F": {"ts_code": "603681.SH", "name": "永冠新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "胶黏剂及胶带", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190326", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.63, "pe_ttm": 23.8833, "pb": 1.2755, "dv_ttm": 0.5153, "total_mv": 442912.9734, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.4, 13.0, 10.2, 8.7, 7.9, 7.6], "rev_series": [24.1, 38.4, 50.3, 54.6, 62.0, 66.9], "np_series": [1.8, 2.3, 2.3, 0.8, 1.6, 1.2], "roe_series": [12.0, 11.9, 9.7, 3.3, 6.4, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 70.2, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": 7.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 17.2, "gm_median": 8.7, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 2.6, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.9, "fix_assets": 32.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.28, "capex_dep": 1.97, "interest_debt": 28.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 53.6, "debt_mv": 63.3, "payout": 17.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.0, "np_cagr3": -18.3, "rev_yoy": 10.1, "np_yoy": 199.6, "np_vol": 54.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 24.5, "fwd_pe2": 15.4, "fwd_g1": -3.0, "fwd_g2": 59.0, "peg": 0.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["民用消费级胶粘新材料", 18.0], ["可降解材料单丝", 12.0], ["可降解新材料", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.4, "ret_prev2_year": -14.0, "ret_ytd": -1.3, "ret_pivot": 89.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": -20.0, "ret_120": -3.6, "ret_250": 12.8, "mdd_250": -40.5, "vol_250": 46.5, "pos_52w": 68.3}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 36, "hard": 70, "bondness": 32}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.7%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 17.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.7%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 1.97 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.9 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 13%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -20% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "永冠新材:PE 比行业中位低 12.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.4个百分点。"]}}