{"F": {"ts_code": "603677.SH", "name": "奇精机械", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "sw3": "家电零部件Ⅲ", "ind": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170206", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.52, "pe_ttm": 198.4752, "pb": 2.3333, "dv_ttm": 1.4793, "total_mv": 260396.4168, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.2, 14.2, 13.0, 14.8, 12.3, 12.7], "rev_series": [15.6, 20.1, 18.0, 17.7, 20.0, 20.7], "np_series": [0.6, 0.9, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.5], "roe_series": [5.3, 8.3, 5.8, 6.1, 5.8, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.4, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 13.0, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.0, "fix_assets": 6.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.33, "capex_dep": 1.34, "interest_debt": 4.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 48.6, "debt_mv": 15.4, "payout": 71.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.6, "np_cagr3": -9.0, "rev_yoy": -2.5, "np_yoy": -86.7, "np_vol": 31.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["家电零部件", 73.0], ["汽车零部件", 15.0], ["电动工具零部件", 5.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 38.0, "ret_prev2_year": -6.2, "ret_ytd": -24.8, "ret_pivot": 33.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.6, "ret_60": -7.4, "ret_120": -19.1, "ret_250": -34.5, "mdd_250": -41.5, "vol_250": 38.1, "pos_52w": 64.2}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 45, "hard": 50, "bondness": 59}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 1.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 198.5 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -7% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家电零部件Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 50.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 39%。", "奇精机械:PE 比行业中位高 148.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.4个百分点。"]}}