{"F": {"ts_code": "603668.SH", "name": "天马科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "饲料", "sw3": "水产饲料", "ind": "饲料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170117", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.93, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.8411, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 603415.4631, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.2, 10.2, 9.6, 7.5, 10.9, 7.3], "rev_series": [36.4, 54.2, 70.1, 70.0, 58.5, 60.0], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 1.3, -1.9, 0.3, -1.8], "roe_series": [5.8, 5.4, 6.7, -8.8, 1.2, -8.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 61.6, "np_ttm": -2.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 9.6, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.6, "fix_assets": 36.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 2.84, "capex_dep": 0.67, "interest_debt": 41.6, "debt_ebitda": 13.2, "debt_ratio": 72.1, "debt_mv": 68.9, "payout": 80.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -5.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.3, "np_yoy": -79.5, "np_vol": 333.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 255.6, "fwd_pe2": 96.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 164.0, "peg": 1.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.8, "ret_prev2_year": -23.4, "ret_ytd": -28.4, "ret_pivot": 2.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.8, "ret_60": 6.6, "ret_120": -12.6, "ret_250": -13.2, "mdd_250": -48.0, "vol_250": 47.4, "pos_52w": 62.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 60, "bondness": 63}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 13.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.6%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.6%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.67 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 7% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饲料」19 家中位:PE 44.7 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 9.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 40%。", "天马科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点。"]}}