{"F": {"ts_code": "603667.SH", "name": "五洲新春", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161025", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 48.85, "pe_ttm": 243.0502, "pb": 4.6865, "dv_ttm": 0.2456, "total_mv": 1871697.52, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.1, 19.9, 17.8, 17.5, 16.5, 18.1], "rev_series": [17.5, 24.2, 32.0, 31.1, 32.6, 33.4], "np_series": [0.6, 1.2, 1.5, 1.4, 0.9, 0.9], "roe_series": [3.5, 6.6, 6.9, 5.3, 3.1, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.8, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 17.8, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 4.6, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.7, "fix_assets": 15.8, "goodwill_ratio": 7.3, "pb_calc": 4.69, "capex_dep": 0.97, "interest_debt": 7.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 31.6, "debt_mv": 4.2, "payout": 48.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.5, "np_cagr3": -14.8, "rev_yoy": -19.0, "np_yoy": -19.1, "np_vol": 45.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 137.0, "fwd_pe2": 107.0, "fwd_g1": 77.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 4.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["轴承产品", 27.0], ["热管理系统零部件", 12.0], ["汽车零部件", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 185.0, "ret_prev2_year": 6.7, "ret_ytd": -30.1, "ret_pivot": 297.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.2, "ret_60": -24.7, "ret_120": -32.2, "ret_250": 21.2, "mdd_250": -47.0, "vol_250": 65.6, "pos_52w": 53.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 43, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 243.1 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.97 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 243.1 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -25% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "五洲新春:PE 比行业中位高 192.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.9个百分点。"]}}