{"F": {"ts_code": "603665.SH", "name": "康隆达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "鞋帽及其他", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170313", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.22, "pe_ttm": 345.6589, "pb": 5.4724, "dv_ttm": 0.7201, "total_mv": 355892.6294, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.1, 22.8, 31.2, 18.4, 16.8, 15.4], "rev_series": [10.1, 10.5, 13.7, 15.6, 15.2, 14.1], "np_series": [0.8, -1.5, 2.1, -2.2, -4.9, 0.8], "roe_series": [7.2, -15.2, 18.1, -17.4, -54.6, 12.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.4, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 18.4, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": 4.1, "npm_median": -18.8, "roe_median": -15.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.3, "fix_assets": 13.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.47, "capex_dep": 0.55, "interest_debt": 12.0, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 72.6, "debt_mv": 33.7, "payout": 32.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 0.8, "np_cagr3": -27.5, "rev_yoy": 5.2, "np_yoy": -61.8, "np_vol": 200.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 127.5, "ret_prev2_year": -53.9, "ret_ytd": -30.0, "ret_pivot": 66.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.0, "ret_60": -15.7, "ret_120": -30.4, "ret_250": -14.9, "mdd_250": -49.0, "vol_250": 50.6, "pos_52w": 56.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 87, "bondness": 50}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 54%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 69%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 0.55 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 345.7 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -16% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "康隆达:PE 比行业中位高 308.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 23.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 40.2个百分点。"]}}