{"F": {"ts_code": "603661.SH", "name": "恒林股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "成品家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.78, "pe_ttm": 41.2126, "pb": 1.1439, "dv_ttm": 1.7869, "total_mv": 428048.226, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.5, 22.5, 21.8, 23.8, 18.6, 18.5], "rev_series": [47.4, 57.8, 65.1, 81.9, 110.3, 116.8], "np_series": [3.6, 3.4, 3.5, 2.6, 2.6, 1.6], "roe_series": [13.7, 11.6, 11.2, 7.9, 7.4, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 130.0, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 7.7, "fcf_ttm": 6.4, "fcf_yield": 15.0, "ocf_yield": 18.0, "gm_median": 21.8, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -7.7, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.5, "fix_assets": 21.7, "goodwill_ratio": 2.9, "pb_calc": 1.14, "capex_dep": 0.24, "interest_debt": 36.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 63.6, "debt_mv": 85.2, "payout": 46.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 21.5, "np_cagr3": -22.6, "rev_yoy": 24.7, "np_yoy": -33.1, "np_vol": 16.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 11.8, "fwd_pe2": 8.5, "fwd_g1": 249.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 0.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["综合家居", 17.0], ["家居综合类", 17.0], ["办公家具", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.0, "ret_prev2_year": -32.2, "ret_ytd": -3.8, "ret_pivot": 6.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.9, "ret_60": -14.9, "ret_120": -7.0, "ret_250": 3.9, "mdd_250": -36.3, "vol_250": 48.7, "pos_52w": 72.1}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 46, "hard": 33, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 41.2 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 15.0%(经营现金流/市值 18.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.24 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.2 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -15% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "恒林股份:PE 比行业中位高 12.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.1个百分点。"]}}