{"F": {"ts_code": "603659.SH", "name": "璞泰来", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171103", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.45, "pe_ttm": 17.4688, "pb": 2.249, "dv_ttm": 1.0052, "total_mv": 4813693.529, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.6, 35.7, 35.7, 32.9, 27.5, 31.7], "rev_series": [52.8, 90.0, 154.6, 153.4, 134.5, 157.1], "np_series": [6.7, 17.5, 31.0, 19.1, 11.9, 23.6], "roe_series": [10.8, 18.0, 25.9, 12.2, 6.6, 12.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 187.4, "np_ttm": 27.6, "ocf_ttm": 32.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 6.8, "gm_median": 32.9, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 4.1, "npm_median": 16.6, "roe_median": 12.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.1, "fix_assets": 180.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 3.19, "interest_debt": 138.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 58.1, "debt_mv": 28.8, "payout": 20.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.5, "np_cagr3": -8.7, "rev_yoy": 42.7, "np_yoy": 37.6, "np_vol": 78.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 14.8, "fwd_pe2": 11.3, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 0.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["新能源电池材料与服务", 84.0], ["新能源自动化装备与服务", 27.0], ["产业投资贸易管理及其他", 9.0], ["产业投资贸易管理与其他", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 74.8, "ret_prev2_year": -23.9, "ret_ytd": -17.2, "ret_pivot": 118.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.8, "ret_60": -17.6, "ret_120": -30.2, "ret_250": 18.7, "mdd_250": -43.1, "vol_250": 49.1, "pos_52w": 59.7}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 59, "hard": 53, "bondness": 41}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 180 亿,占总资产 33%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.1 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -0.2%,股息率 1.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 71%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 33%)和定价权(毛利率 32.9% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 6.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 3.19 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.5 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 19%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -18% / -30%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "璞泰来:PE 比行业中位低 18.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点。"]}}