{"F": {"ts_code": "603656.SH", "name": "泰禾智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170321", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.21, "pe_ttm": 93.2802, "pb": 2.3704, "dv_ttm": 0.2853, "total_mv": 314849.0334, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.8, 42.3, 40.0, 41.6, 39.6, 41.4], "rev_series": [4.7, 5.2, 4.8, 5.1, 5.6, 6.2], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.2, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [4.6, 3.9, 2.2, 1.0, 1.7, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 41.4, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -8.8, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.3, "fix_assets": 8.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.37, "capex_dep": 1.75, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 33.1, "debt_mv": 3.1, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.7, "np_cagr3": 10.5, "rev_yoy": 24.1, "np_yoy": 43.7, "np_vol": 52.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能检测分选装备", 75.0], ["储能服务", 12.0], ["智能包装装备", 7.0], ["其他业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.1, "ret_prev2_year": 19.9, "ret_ytd": -25.1, "ret_pivot": 81.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": -4.5, "ret_120": -23.3, "ret_250": -10.7, "mdd_250": -34.7, "vol_250": 31.4, "pos_52w": 67.8}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 59, "hard": 64, "bondness": 30}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 8 亿,占总资产 40%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 41.4%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.4%,股息率 0.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 95%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 40%)和定价权(毛利率 41.4% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.4%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 1.75 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 93.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -4% / -23%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "泰禾智能:PE 比行业中位高 51.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.3个百分点。"]}}