{"F": {"ts_code": "603648.SH", "name": "畅联股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "中间产品及消费品供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170913", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.33, "pe_ttm": 27.0469, "pb": 1.8637, "dv_ttm": 3.4298, "total_mv": 338131.1424, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.9, 19.6, 19.1, 19.4, 21.7, 19.9], "rev_series": [15.2, 15.9, 16.4, 16.3, 15.2, 15.4], "np_series": [1.1, 1.5, 1.6, 1.5, 1.3, 1.2], "roe_series": [6.5, 8.2, 8.9, 8.4, 7.1, 6.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.7, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 7.4, "ocf_yield": 10.8, "gm_median": 19.6, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 2.2, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.3, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 1.86, "capex_dep": 2.19, "interest_debt": 3.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 31.1, "debt_mv": 10.5, "payout": 83.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.1, "np_cagr3": -8.7, "rev_yoy": 4.6, "np_yoy": 2.7, "np_vol": 16.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["供应链物流", 49.0], ["供应链贸易", 1.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.8, "ret_prev2_year": 9.7, "ret_ytd": -11.8, "ret_pivot": 30.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": 13.0, "ret_120": -6.4, "ret_250": -16.2, "mdd_250": -27.5, "vol_250": 26.6, "pos_52w": 83.5}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 52, "hard": 52, "bondness": 73}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 83%、股息率 3.4%、营收 3 年复合 -2.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.6%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.4%(经营现金流/市值 10.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.6%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 2.19 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.0 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 13% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "畅联股份:PE 比行业中位高 5.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.7个百分点。"]}}