{"F": {"ts_code": "603639.SH", "name": "海利尔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "农药", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170112", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.66, "pe_ttm": 35.6359, "pb": 1.0443, "dv_ttm": 2.8143, "total_mv": 372724.9812, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.9, 29.7, 26.4, 31.0, 23.9, 25.0], "rev_series": [32.3, 37.0, 45.3, 44.0, 39.1, 42.0], "np_series": [4.1, 4.5, 4.6, 4.7, 1.8, 1.8], "roe_series": [16.7, 15.9, 14.7, 14.4, 5.3, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.7, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 10.5, "gm_median": 26.4, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": 10.1, "roe_median": 14.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.9, "fix_assets": 24.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 0.77, "interest_debt": 11.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 49.7, "debt_mv": 30.0, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.5, "np_cagr3": -26.6, "rev_yoy": -16.7, "np_yoy": -38.4, "np_vol": 26.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["主营业务", 33.0], ["农药", 32.0], ["肥料", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.9, "ret_prev2_year": -19.4, "ret_ytd": -14.0, "ret_pivot": 8.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.1, "ret_60": 1.5, "ret_120": -24.7, "ret_250": -27.7, "mdd_250": -36.0, "vol_250": 29.2, "pos_52w": 71.0}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 50, "hard": 56, "bondness": 64}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 35.6 倍、股息率 2.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 10.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 0.77 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.6 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 2% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "海利尔:PE 比行业中位高 14.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点。"]}}