{"F": {"ts_code": "603638.SH", "name": "艾迪精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械器件", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.49, "pe_ttm": 33.0692, "pb": 3.5741, "dv_ttm": 1.0334, "total_mv": 1628403.206, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.7, 33.8, 28.9, 31.9, 29.5, 29.3], "rev_series": [22.6, 26.8, 20.2, 22.4, 27.2, 32.0], "np_series": [5.2, 4.7, 2.5, 2.8, 3.4, 3.9], "roe_series": [23.2, 17.8, 8.4, 8.6, 10.2, 11.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 38.9, "np_ttm": 4.9, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 29.5, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -11.8, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 10.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.9, "fix_assets": 27.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 3.55, "capex_dep": 0.7, "interest_debt": 12.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 35.6, "debt_mv": 7.5, "payout": 36.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.4, "np_cagr3": 16.4, "rev_yoy": 44.2, "np_yoy": 47.7, "np_vol": 25.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 28.2, "fwd_pe2": 22.0, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 1.01, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["液压件", 35.0], ["破碎锤", 12.0], ["其他产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.2, "ret_prev2_year": 5.3, "ret_ytd": -1.8, "ret_pivot": 28.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.5, "ret_60": -21.1, "ret_120": -16.0, "ret_250": -2.0, "mdd_250": -33.7, "vol_250": 41.4, "pos_52w": 66.3}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 51, "hard": 59, "bondness": 26}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 48%,PE TTM 33.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 28.2 倍,PEG 1.01。", "自由现金流 1.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 28%(5 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.70 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.1 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -21% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "艾迪精密:PE 比行业中位高 4.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.7个百分点。"]}}