{"F": {"ts_code": "603637.SH", "name": "镇海股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "专业工程", "sw3": "化学工程", "ind": "专业工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.68, "pe_ttm": 57.3328, "pb": 3.3601, "dv_ttm": 0.6812, "total_mv": 350390.9012, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.3, 10.7, 28.3, 27.2, 27.5, 26.1], "rev_series": [11.0, 11.0, 5.7, 5.9, 5.2, 4.6], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.7], "roe_series": [8.2, 9.2, 12.1, 10.9, 9.8, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.8, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 27.2, "gm_std": 6.7, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": 18.0, "npm_median": 17.3, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.3, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.36, "capex_dep": 0.25, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 21.4, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.0, "np_cagr3": -13.8, "rev_yoy": 7.8, "np_yoy": -19.3, "np_vol": 23.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工程总承包业务", 40.0], ["工程总承包", 40.0], ["工程设计业务", 9.0], ["工程设计", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.1, "ret_prev2_year": -6.3, "ret_ytd": 36.3, "ret_pivot": 159.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.3, "ret_60": -14.6, "ret_120": 20.2, "ret_250": 32.7, "mdd_250": -51.9, "vol_250": 56.9, "pos_52w": 66.6}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 51, "hard": 4, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 57.3 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%、固定资产占比 2%、资产负债率 21%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 18.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 0.25 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.3 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 33%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / -15% / 20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业工程」39 家中位:PE 40.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 13.6% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 38%。", "镇海股份:PE 比行业中位高 17.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点。"]}}