{"F": {"ts_code": "603630.SH", "name": "拉芳家化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "化妆品", "sw3": "品牌化妆品", "ind": "化妆品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170313", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.61, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.7282, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 329023.9206, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.4, 54.0, 47.2, 47.8, 47.9, 49.1], "rev_series": [9.8, 11.0, 8.9, 8.6, 8.9, 8.2], "np_series": [1.2, 0.7, 0.6, 0.7, 0.4, -0.3], "roe_series": [6.6, 3.7, 3.1, 3.4, 2.1, -1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.5, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -2.5, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 47.9, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.8, "fix_assets": 4.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.73, "capex_dep": 15.26, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 11.8, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 76.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -2.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.2, "np_yoy": 484.5, "np_vol": 64.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.4, "ret_prev2_year": -8.3, "ret_ytd": -24.5, "ret_pivot": 59.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.1, "ret_60": 14.1, "ret_120": -14.3, "ret_250": -41.4, "mdd_250": -60.1, "vol_250": 47.1, "pos_52w": 46.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 64, "hard": 35, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE —、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 47.9%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 47.9%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 47.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 15.26 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -41%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 14% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化妆品」16 家中位:PE 31.5 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 53.1% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 50%。", "拉芳家化:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点。"]}}