{"F": {"ts_code": "603626.SH", "name": "科森科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.93, "pe_ttm": 383.7146, "pb": 4.611, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 994899.3021, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.3, 18.3, 14.6, 12.6, 5.3, 8.0], "rev_series": [34.7, 41.5, 34.2, 26.0, 33.8, 31.3], "np_series": [-0.5, 3.7, 0.9, -2.8, -4.8, -3.5], "roe_series": [-2.5, 14.5, 2.8, -9.5, -18.8, -16.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.6, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 12.6, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.63, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": -10.8, "roe_median": -9.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.6, "fix_assets": 20.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 4.61, "capex_dep": 0.81, "interest_debt": 12.1, "debt_ebitda": 49.1, "debt_ratio": 52.2, "debt_mv": 12.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -29.9, "np_yoy": 358.3, "np_vol": 432.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 168.5, "ret_prev2_year": -12.9, "ret_ytd": -14.4, "ret_pivot": 119.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.0, "ret_60": -15.9, "ret_120": -23.0, "ret_250": 12.7, "mdd_250": -56.9, "vol_250": 72.7, "pos_52w": 63.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 73, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 49.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.6%,稳定度 63%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.6%,稳定度 63%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.81 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 383.7 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 13%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / -16% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "科森科技:PE 比行业中位高 337.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.8个百分点。"]}}