{"F": {"ts_code": "603619.SH", "name": "中曼石油", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油服工程", "sw3": "油田服务", "ind": "油服工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171117", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.78, "pe_ttm": 34.1622, "pb": 2.4124, "dv_ttm": 1.4796, "total_mv": 1053207.103, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.4, 32.3, 45.8, 45.7, 46.0, 44.2], "rev_series": [15.8, 17.5, 30.7, 37.3, 41.3, 39.3], "np_series": [-4.9, 0.7, 5.0, 8.1, 7.3, 5.1], "roe_series": [-22.8, 3.4, 23.6, 32.9, 21.9, 12.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 36.5, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": 13.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": 13.1, "gm_median": 45.7, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 33.3, "npm_median": 16.4, "roe_median": 21.9, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 25.2, "fix_assets": 33.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.41, "capex_dep": 2.78, "interest_debt": 45.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 64.3, "debt_mv": 43.5, "payout": 30.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.6, "np_cagr3": 0.4, "rev_yoy": -13.9, "np_yoy": -67.0, "np_vol": 224.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 13.0, "fwd_pe2": 11.7, "fwd_g1": 163.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 1.18, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["原油及其衍生品", 32.0], ["钻井工程服务", 16.0], ["钻机及配件销售和租赁", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.4, "ret_prev2_year": 11.2, "ret_ytd": -0.6, "ret_pivot": 35.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": -6.1, "ret_120": -37.3, "ret_250": 11.4, "mdd_250": -62.2, "vol_250": 60.7, "pos_52w": 48.6}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 70, "hard": 40, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.2 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 45.7%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.7%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 13.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.7%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 33.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 2.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.2 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -6% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油服工程」14 家中位:PE 62.0 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 35%。", "中曼石油:PE 比行业中位低 27.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 31.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}