{"F": {"ts_code": "603617.SH", "name": "君禾股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170703", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.98, "pe_ttm": 52.2462, "pb": 1.7359, "dv_ttm": 0.7163, "total_mv": 272088.2874, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 22.5, 21.5, 18.0, 23.8, 25.2], "rev_series": [7.4, 9.8, 7.5, 7.2, 11.1, 11.2], "np_series": [1.0, 0.9, 0.5, 0.4, 0.8, 0.5], "roe_series": [14.8, 9.3, 4.2, 2.7, 5.5, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.4, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 22.5, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 7.1, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.0, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.74, "capex_dep": 1.76, "interest_debt": 5.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 37.1, "debt_mv": 19.9, "payout": 38.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.2, "np_cagr3": -2.1, "rev_yoy": 20.4, "np_yoy": 5.1, "np_vol": 59.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.0, "ret_prev2_year": -20.3, "ret_ytd": -6.8, "ret_pivot": 42.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.3, "ret_60": -5.2, "ret_120": -8.5, "ret_250": -28.6, "mdd_250": -36.7, "vol_250": 37.1, "pos_52w": 74.7}, "S": {"duration": 73, "pricing": 47, "hard": 53, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 52.2 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%、固定资产占比 33%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 1.76 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 52.2 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -5% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "君禾股份:PE 比行业中位高 1.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.2个百分点。"]}}