{"F": {"ts_code": "603616.SH", "name": "韩建河山", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制品", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150611", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.8, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 10.9767, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 224586.44, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.2, 17.3, 7.8, 12.4, 13.6, 17.8], "rev_series": [9.8, 15.2, 5.6, 5.3, 7.9, 8.8], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, -3.6, -3.1, -2.3, -0.1], "roe_series": [7.6, 3.1, -37.9, -50.9, -67.3, -4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.4, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 13.6, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -13.4, "npm_median": -29.4, "roe_median": -37.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.7, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 10.98, "capex_dep": 3.24, "interest_debt": 2.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.7, "debt_ratio": 84.7, "debt_mv": 12.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 16.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -47.7, "np_yoy": -383.9, "np_vol": 535.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["PCCP,RCP等", 28.0], ["PCCP", 28.0], ["混凝土外加剂", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 47.9, "ret_prev2_year": -37.2, "ret_ytd": 11.8, "ret_pivot": 105.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.4, "ret_60": -11.6, "ret_120": -15.0, "ret_250": -0.2, "mdd_250": -50.3, "vol_250": 57.6, "pos_52w": 63.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 16, "bondness": 18}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 85%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 3.24 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -12% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "韩建河山:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 22.1个百分点。"]}}