{"F": {"ts_code": "603615.SH", "name": "茶花股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170213", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.1, "pe_ttm": 234.4562, "pb": 3.8133, "dv_ttm": 0.1105, "total_mv": 437694.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 21.6, 20.5, 25.3, 20.2, 11.5], "rev_series": [6.9, 8.0, 6.8, 6.6, 5.6, 12.7], "np_series": [0.4, -0.2, -0.2, 0.0, -0.4, 0.1], "roe_series": [3.1, -1.6, -1.5, 0.4, -3.2, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.9, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -2.7, "fcf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_yield": -6.5, "ocf_yield": -6.3, "gm_median": 20.5, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -7.9, "npm_median": -2.7, "roe_median": -1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.81, "capex_dep": 0.19, "interest_debt": 4.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.3, "debt_ratio": 35.4, "debt_mv": 9.5, "payout": 433.2, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 23.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 219.4, "np_yoy": 334.5, "np_vol": 382.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电子元器件分销", 76.0], ["塑料制品", 14.0], ["非塑料制品", 5.0], ["非塑制品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.2, "ret_prev2_year": 25.0, "ret_ytd": -22.5, "ret_pivot": 50.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.3, "ret_60": 4.1, "ret_120": -10.1, "ret_250": -27.7, "mdd_250": -51.6, "vol_250": 47.1, "pos_52w": 61.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 31, "bondness": 49}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 234 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 35%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -6.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.5%(经营现金流/市值 -6.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.5%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.19 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 234.5 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 4% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "茶花股份:PE 比行业中位高 206.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.3个百分点。"]}}