{"F": {"ts_code": "603613.SH", "name": "国联股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "互联网电商", "sw3": "综合电商", "ind": "互联网电商", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190730", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.68, "pe_ttm": 11.2231, "pb": 1.5227, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1490072.1704, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.0, 4.4, 5.4, 5.8, 5.4, 6.5], "rev_series": [148.2, 274.9, 402.7, 506.8, 535.8, 509.8], "np_series": [3.0, 5.8, 11.3, 14.3, 14.5, 13.2], "roe_series": [12.5, 14.3, 23.1, 23.9, 20.3, 15.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 471.1, "np_ttm": 13.3, "ocf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_ttm": -11.1, "fcf_yield": -7.4, "ocf_yield": -1.6, "gm_median": 5.4, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 3.2, "roe_median": 20.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.9, "fix_assets": 10.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.52, "capex_dep": 12.03, "interest_debt": 35.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 48.6, "debt_mv": 23.8, "payout": 7.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.2, "np_cagr3": 5.5, "rev_yoy": -16.1, "np_yoy": 0.8, "np_vol": 43.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 55.0, "earn_yield": 8.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["网上商品交易业务", 49.0], ["互联网技术服务", 0.0], ["其他服务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.6, "ret_prev2_year": 22.0, "ret_ytd": -26.1, "ret_pivot": 8.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.3, "ret_60": 3.6, "ret_120": -25.6, "ret_250": -20.9, "mdd_250": -48.3, "vol_250": 40.9, "pos_52w": 62.7}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 42, "hard": 8, "bondness": 18}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 11.2 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 5.4%、固定资产占比 5%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 5.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.4%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 12.03 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.2 倍 粗算,约 55%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 4% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「互联网电商」19 家中位:PE 32.2 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 31.4% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 74%。", "国联股份:PE 比行业中位低 21.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 26.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.8个百分点。"]}}