{"F": {"ts_code": "603612.SH", "name": "索通发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "非金属材料Ⅱ", "sw3": "非金属材料Ⅲ", "ind": "非金属材料Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170718", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.97, "pe_ttm": 13.4242, "pb": 1.3971, "dv_ttm": 1.9341, "total_mv": 845283.3365, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.7, 17.1, 13.2, 1.6, 9.2, 14.0], "rev_series": [58.5, 94.6, 194.0, 153.1, 137.5, 176.9], "np_series": [2.1, 6.2, 9.1, -7.2, 2.7, 7.5], "roe_series": [6.8, 15.2, 18.2, -13.0, 5.0, 13.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 198.0, "np_ttm": 6.3, "ocf_ttm": -4.3, "fcf_ttm": -9.8, "fcf_yield": -11.6, "ocf_yield": -5.1, "gm_median": 13.2, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.6, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 5.9, "roe_median": 13.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.3, "fix_assets": 79.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.4, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 106.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 63.3, "debt_mv": 125.4, "payout": 21.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -3.0, "np_cagr3": -6.2, "rev_yoy": 25.4, "np_yoy": -22.4, "np_vol": 136.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.4, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 8.3, "fwd_pe2": 6.7, "fwd_g1": 61.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["阳极板", 49.0], ["预焙阳极", 46.0], ["其他业务", 2.0], ["负极材料", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 77.4, "ret_prev2_year": -12.5, "ret_ytd": -27.4, "ret_pivot": 77.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.5, "ret_60": -11.0, "ret_120": -50.3, "ret_250": -27.8, "mdd_250": -58.6, "vol_250": 50.0, "pos_52w": 47.9}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 33, "hard": 60, "bondness": 52}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 37%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 60%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.6%(经营现金流/市值 -5.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 60%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.4 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -11% / -50%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非金属材料Ⅱ」14 家中位:PE 54.2 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 26.6% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 41%。", "索通发展:PE 比行业中位低 40.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点。"]}}