{"F": {"ts_code": "603611.SH", "name": "诺力股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械整机", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.33, "pe_ttm": 12.9357, "pb": 1.3589, "dv_ttm": 5.101, "total_mv": 420662.1064, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.1, 19.5, 20.2, 22.2, 22.8, 22.6], "rev_series": [40.8, 58.9, 67.0, 69.6, 69.8, 66.9], "np_series": [2.4, 3.0, 4.0, 4.6, 4.6, 4.3], "roe_series": [14.0, 15.3, 18.2, 18.3, 16.5, 14.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 68.9, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 7.6, "ocf_yield": 12.7, "gm_median": 22.2, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 16.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.4, "fix_assets": 11.3, "goodwill_ratio": 5.4, "pb_calc": 1.36, "capex_dep": 2.1, "interest_debt": 16.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 68.5, "debt_mv": 38.9, "payout": 49.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.1, "np_cagr3": 2.2, "rev_yoy": 6.2, "np_yoy": -42.3, "np_vol": 14.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 61.0, "earn_yield": 7.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 7.0, "fwd_pe2": 5.8, "fwd_g1": 85.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["智能智造装备业务", 21.0], ["仓储物流车辆及设备", 21.0], ["智能物流系统业务", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.6, "ret_prev2_year": -2.2, "ret_ytd": -30.9, "ret_pivot": 17.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.6, "ret_60": -3.8, "ret_120": -28.7, "ret_250": -38.7, "mdd_250": -39.2, "vol_250": 30.7, "pos_52w": 62.4}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 49, "hard": 18, "bondness": 74}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 50%、股息率 5.1%、营收 3 年复合 -0.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.3 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.6%(经营现金流/市值 12.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 2.10 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.9 倍 粗算,约 61%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -4% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "诺力股份:PE 比行业中位低 15.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.8个百分点。"]}}