{"F": {"ts_code": "603610.SH", "name": "麒盛科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "成品家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20191029", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.16, "pe_ttm": 176.6332, "pb": 1.6435, "dv_ttm": 0.9887, "total_mv": 499836.1056, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.0, 35.5, 31.6, 36.7, 34.9, 33.5], "rev_series": [22.6, 29.7, 26.6, 31.0, 29.6, 30.3], "np_series": [2.7, 3.6, 0.3, 2.1, 1.6, 1.0], "roe_series": [9.4, 11.6, 0.8, 6.5, 4.9, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.0, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 8.1, "gm_median": 34.9, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -6.4, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.0, "fix_assets": 16.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 1.64, "capex_dep": 1.59, "interest_debt": 11.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 36.3, "debt_mv": 22.5, "payout": 48.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.4, "np_cagr3": 60.0, "rev_yoy": 18.2, "np_yoy": -72.5, "np_vol": 264.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 24.4, "fwd_pe2": 18.8, "fwd_g1": 623.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 52.9, "ret_prev2_year": 15.8, "ret_ytd": -25.1, "ret_pivot": 85.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.2, "ret_60": -16.4, "ret_120": -28.3, "ret_250": -5.3, "mdd_250": -41.3, "vol_250": 54.9, "pos_52w": 66.5}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 54, "hard": 56, "bondness": 47}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 17 亿,占总资产 35%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.8%,股息率 1.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 97%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 35%)和定价权(毛利率 34.9% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 8.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 1.59 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 176.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -16% / -28%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "麒盛科技:PE 比行业中位高 148.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点。"]}}