{"F": {"ts_code": "603609.SH", "name": "禾丰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "饲料", "sw3": "畜禽饲料", "ind": "饲料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140808", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.71, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.9542, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 606595.2057, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.0, 5.3, 6.0, 4.0, 6.4, 5.8], "rev_series": [238.2, 294.7, 328.1, 359.7, 325.5, 357.6], "np_series": [12.4, 1.2, 5.1, -4.6, 3.4, 0.5], "roe_series": [19.8, 1.8, 7.5, -6.6, 5.1, 0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 373.2, "np_ttm": -1.9, "ocf_ttm": 8.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 3.5, "ocf_yield": 13.9, "gm_median": 5.8, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 0.1, "roe_median": 1.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.4, "fix_assets": 57.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 0.92, "capex_dep": 0.84, "interest_debt": 66.3, "debt_ebitda": 6.6, "debt_ratio": 57.7, "debt_mv": 109.3, "payout": 15.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 2.9, "np_cagr3": -53.2, "rev_yoy": 8.9, "np_yoy": -103.6, "np_vol": 194.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["肉禽", 24.0], ["饲料", 19.0], ["生猪", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -17.2, "ret_prev2_year": 0.7, "ret_ytd": -5.4, "ret_pivot": 1.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.4, "ret_60": 9.8, "ret_120": -10.8, "ret_250": -24.2, "mdd_250": -37.3, "vol_250": 24.4, "pos_52w": 74.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 49, "bondness": 37}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.8%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.5%(经营现金流/市值 13.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 10% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饲料」19 家中位:PE 44.7 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 9.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 40%。", "禾丰股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.0个百分点。"]}}