{"F": {"ts_code": "603608.SH", "name": "天创时尚", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "鞋帽及其他", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.95, "pe_ttm": 248.9166, "pb": 7.4997, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 890437.2215, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [60.1, 56.4, 58.4, 62.1, 62.2, 60.1], "rev_series": [18.8, 19.3, 12.7, 12.7, 11.0, 11.5], "np_series": [-4.6, -0.6, -1.8, -0.3, -0.9, 0.1], "roe_series": [-23.9, -4.0, -12.3, -2.3, -7.8, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.3, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 60.1, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": -3.3, "roe_median": -4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.9, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.5, "capex_dep": 0.34, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 18.8, "debt_mv": 1.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -3.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.1, "np_yoy": 316.2, "np_vol": 139.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["鞋、包及其他", 49.0], ["鞋,包及其他", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 176.9, "ret_prev2_year": -33.7, "ret_ytd": 103.4, "ret_pivot": 571.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.2, "ret_60": -14.3, "ret_120": 82.8, "ret_250": 170.3, "mdd_250": -46.2, "vol_250": 66.2, "pos_52w": 73.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 9, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 249 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 19%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 60.1%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 60.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.34 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 248.9 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 170%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / -14% / 83%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "天创时尚:PE 比行业中位高 211.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点。"]}}