{"F": {"ts_code": "603598.SH", "name": "引力传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150527", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.77, "pe_ttm": 270.6575, "pb": 21.9094, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 506817.4042, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.6, 4.4, 4.5, 5.7, 3.7, 3.3], "rev_series": [56.0, 55.0, 43.3, 47.4, 62.9, 82.8], "np_series": [1.0, -2.1, -1.0, 0.5, -0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [25.5, -59.4, -51.0, 28.1, -9.5, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 85.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -3.5, "fcf_ttm": -3.5, "fcf_yield": -7.0, "ocf_yield": -7.0, "gm_median": 4.4, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": -0.3, "roe_median": -9.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.2, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 21.91, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 6.3, "debt_ebitda": 14.3, "debt_ratio": 88.3, "debt_mv": 12.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 24.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.3, "np_yoy": 10.0, "np_vol": 185.9, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 65.9, "fwd_pe2": 50.1, "fwd_g1": 311.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 2.06, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.6, "ret_prev2_year": -18.3, "ret_ytd": 10.5, "ret_pivot": 58.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.9, "ret_60": -1.4, "ret_120": -4.5, "ret_250": 1.5, "mdd_250": -54.9, "vol_250": 62.8, "pos_52w": 57.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 37, "hard": 0, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 271 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 88%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 -7.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 4.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.0%(经营现金流/市值 -7.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.4%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 270.7 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -1% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "引力传媒:PE 比行业中位高 172.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点。"]}}