{"F": {"ts_code": "603596.SH", "name": "伯特利", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180427", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.96, "pe_ttm": 18.8252, "pb": 3.2678, "dv_ttm": 0.857, "total_mv": 2689334.9167, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.4, 24.2, 22.4, 22.6, 21.1, 19.6], "rev_series": [30.4, 34.9, 55.4, 74.7, 99.4, 120.1], "np_series": [4.6, 5.0, 7.0, 8.9, 12.1, 13.1], "roe_series": [18.7, 16.3, 18.1, 18.0, 19.8, 18.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 131.2, "np_ttm": 14.3, "ocf_ttm": 9.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 22.4, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 12.3, "roe_median": 18.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.2, "fix_assets": 43.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 3.19, "capex_dep": 2.18, "interest_debt": 41.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 56.7, "debt_mv": 15.3, "payout": 17.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 29.4, "np_cagr3": 23.3, "rev_yoy": 21.5, "np_yoy": 22.8, "np_vol": 12.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 18, "fwd_pe": 14.0, "fwd_pe2": 11.2, "fwd_g1": 35.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.0, "ret_prev2_year": -9.6, "ret_ytd": -12.9, "ret_pivot": 15.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.5, "ret_60": 13.9, "ret_120": -7.8, "ret_250": -17.2, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 42.8, "pos_52w": 76.3}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 48, "hard": 31, "bondness": 17}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 23%,PE TTM 18.8 倍 但前瞻 PE 14.0 倍,PEG 0.56。", "自由现金流 1.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 25%(18 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 2.18 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.8 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 14% / -8%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "伯特利:PE 比行业中位低 11.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点。"]}}