{"F": {"ts_code": "603595.SH", "name": "ST东尼", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.88, "pe_ttm": 57.7042, "pb": 4.1174, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 694537.5924, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.0, 19.0, 19.3, 12.7, 22.2, 22.5], "rev_series": [9.3, 13.4, 18.9, 18.4, 19.8, 21.1], "np_series": [0.5, 0.3, 0.8, -6.1, 0.1, -0.6], "roe_series": [4.4, 2.5, 4.5, -35.4, 0.7, -4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.4, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 19.3, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": -1.9, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.2, "fix_assets": 22.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.12, "capex_dep": 0.81, "interest_debt": 15.4, "debt_ebitda": 7.7, "debt_ratio": 61.6, "debt_mv": 22.1, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 3.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 27.3, "np_yoy": 446.8, "np_vol": 416.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["消费电子", 21.0], ["新能源", 20.0], ["医疗", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.0, "ret_prev2_year": -53.6, "ret_ytd": 76.7, "ret_pivot": 103.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.7, "ret_60": 23.1, "ret_120": 75.5, "ret_250": 49.1, "mdd_250": -48.6, "vol_250": 52.8, "pos_52w": 80.8}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 45, "hard": 82, "bondness": 42}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 51%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 0.81 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.7 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 49%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / 23% / 76%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "ST东尼:PE 比行业中位高 11.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 26.4个百分点。"]}}