{"F": {"ts_code": "603589.SH", "name": "口子窖", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150629", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.4, "pe_ttm": 35.909, "pb": 1.1084, "dv_ttm": 2.5712, "total_mv": 1160351.83, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [75.2, 73.9, 74.2, 75.2, 74.6, 69.1], "rev_series": [40.1, 50.3, 51.4, 59.6, 60.1, 39.9], "np_series": [12.8, 17.3, 15.5, 17.2, 16.6, 6.7], "roe_series": [17.9, 22.3, 18.1, 18.5, 16.3, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.1, "np_ttm": 3.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -0.8, "gm_median": 74.2, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 28.9, "roe_median": 18.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.1, "fix_assets": 40.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.11, "capex_dep": 0.38, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 17.7, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 47.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.1, "np_cagr3": -24.3, "rev_yoy": -22.9, "np_yoy": -49.0, "np_vol": 31.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["高档白酒", 46.0], ["低档白酒", 2.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -21.1, "ret_prev2_year": -10.9, "ret_ytd": -34.3, "ret_pivot": -44.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.6, "ret_60": -0.3, "ret_120": -26.8, "ret_250": -44.6, "mdd_250": -48.3, "vol_250": 27.0, "pos_52w": 55.9}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 78, "hard": 51, "bondness": 52}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 41 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 74.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.8%,股息率 2.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 86%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(毛利率 74.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 74.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.9 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -0% / -27%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "口子窖:PE 比行业中位高 9.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点。"]}}