{"F": {"ts_code": "603586.SH", "name": "金麒麟", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170406", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.88, "pe_ttm": 59.1998, "pb": 1.2106, "dv_ttm": 3.9625, "total_mv": 272121.2864, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.2, 14.4, 20.6, 24.8, 20.1, 21.3], "rev_series": [12.9, 13.9, 18.3, 16.0, 17.4, 17.7], "np_series": [1.6, -0.5, 1.9, 1.3, 0.9, 1.4], "roe_series": [7.5, -2.4, 9.2, 6.0, 4.1, 6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.8, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_yield": 12.1, "ocf_yield": 13.7, "gm_median": 20.6, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -7.6, "npm_median": 7.7, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.2, "fix_assets": 5.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.21, "capex_dep": 0.54, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 13.0, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": 78.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.1, "np_cagr3": -11.0, "rev_yoy": -19.6, "np_yoy": -83.9, "np_vol": 214.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["刹车片", 72.0], ["刹车盘", 22.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0], ["其他", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.8, "ret_prev2_year": -7.4, "ret_ytd": -25.5, "ret_pivot": 30.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.7, "ret_60": -24.1, "ret_120": -20.8, "ret_250": -31.0, "mdd_250": -41.4, "vol_250": 34.1, "pos_52w": 68.5}, "S": {"duration": 77, "pricing": 43, "hard": 34, "bondness": 72}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 79%、股息率 4.0%、营收 3 年复合 -1.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.1%(经营现金流/市值 13.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.6%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 0.54 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 59.2 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -24% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "金麒麟:PE 比行业中位高 29.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点。"]}}