{"F": {"ts_code": "603583.SH", "name": "捷昌驱动", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180921", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.22, "pe_ttm": 28.4603, "pb": 2.1335, "dv_ttm": 1.1823, "total_mv": 1011465.342, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.3, 27.0, 26.9, 29.2, 29.6, 29.2], "rev_series": [18.7, 26.4, 30.1, 30.3, 36.5, 40.4], "np_series": [4.1, 2.7, 3.3, 2.1, 2.8, 4.0], "roe_series": [15.2, 7.4, 8.5, 5.1, 6.7, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 41.4, "np_ttm": 3.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 29.2, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -12.4, "npm_median": 9.8, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.4, "fix_assets": 21.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.13, "capex_dep": 2.6, "interest_debt": 8.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 32.1, "debt_mv": 8.8, "payout": 31.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.3, "np_cagr3": 6.6, "rev_yoy": 5.1, "np_yoy": -15.4, "np_vol": 34.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 24.0, "fwd_pe2": 21.1, "fwd_g1": 19.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["线性驱动产品", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.7, "ret_prev2_year": 25.2, "ret_ytd": -30.6, "ret_pivot": 78.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.6, "ret_60": 10.0, "ret_120": -22.0, "ret_250": -35.8, "mdd_250": -53.3, "vol_250": 38.6, "pos_52w": 57.0}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 52, "hard": 50, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.5 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.2%、固定资产占比 31%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.2%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.2%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 2.60 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.5 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 10% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "捷昌驱动:PE 比行业中位低 48.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.6个百分点。"]}}