{"F": {"ts_code": "603580.SH", "name": "艾艾精工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170525", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 68.62, "pe_ttm": 222.2597, "pb": 20.039, "dv_ttm": 0.1195, "total_mv": 896679.4984, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.5, 36.5, 29.7, 34.0, 34.1, 26.5], "rev_series": [1.9, 2.5, 1.8, 1.5, 1.7, 3.3], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, -0.0, 0.0, -0.1, 0.4], "roe_series": [7.1, 7.6, -0.6, 0.5, -2.1, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.5, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 34.0, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -8.8, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.3, "fix_assets": 2.4, "goodwill_ratio": 8.9, "pb_calc": 20.04, "capex_dep": 0.64, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 39.3, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": 241.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 23.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 114.2, "np_yoy": -38.1, "np_vol": 352.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["精密金属结构件及电子元件", 48.0], ["轻型输送带", 47.0], ["其他业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.7, "ret_prev2_year": 18.5, "ret_ytd": 323.6, "ret_pivot": 292.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 27.7, "ret_60": 197.3, "ret_120": 358.1, "ret_250": 362.1, "mdd_250": -20.1, "vol_250": 62.3, "pos_52w": 79.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 45, "bondness": 46}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 222 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 39%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.0%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.0%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 0.64 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 222.3 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 362%,最大回撤 -20%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 28% / 197% / 358%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "艾艾精工:PE 比行业中位高 181.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点。"]}}