{"F": {"ts_code": "603579.SH", "name": "荣泰健康", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "其他家电Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他家电Ⅲ", "ind": "其他家电Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170111", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.22, "pe_ttm": 20.6298, "pb": 1.3276, "dv_ttm": 2.7202, "total_mv": 366317.4728, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.7, 26.8, 26.5, 30.8, 31.7, 30.7], "rev_series": [20.2, 26.1, 20.0, 18.6, 16.0, 15.7], "np_series": [1.9, 2.4, 1.6, 2.0, 1.9, 1.5], "roe_series": [11.7, 13.8, 9.0, 10.6, 9.6, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.5, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 30.7, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": 9.5, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.4, "fix_assets": 7.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 1.33, "capex_dep": 1.71, "interest_debt": 4.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 28.6, "debt_mv": 12.0, "payout": 60.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.8, "np_cagr3": -2.8, "rev_yoy": 22.3, "np_yoy": 31.5, "np_vol": 22.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 19.7, "fwd_pe2": 16.8, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.09, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["按摩椅", 82.0], ["按摩小电器", 13.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0], ["其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 70.8, "ret_prev2_year": -3.2, "ret_ytd": -21.8, "ret_pivot": 69.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.7, "ret_60": -0.9, "ret_120": -15.9, "ret_250": -50.7, "mdd_250": -59.4, "vol_250": 45.0, "pos_52w": 46.1}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 54, "hard": 29, "bondness": 68}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.6 倍、股息率 2.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 30.7%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.7%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.71 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.6 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -51%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -1% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他家电Ⅱ」3 家中位:PE 31.3 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 31.8% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 118%。", "荣泰健康:PE 比行业中位低 10.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}