{"F": {"ts_code": "603578.SH", "name": "三星新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "sw3": "家电零部件Ⅲ", "ind": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170306", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.48, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1135, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 292107.504, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.1, 18.9, 18.6, 23.2, 14.0, 16.9], "rev_series": [4.3, 8.3, 7.6, 8.9, 10.2, 15.4], "np_series": [0.9, 1.0, 1.0, 1.2, -0.7, -1.7], "roe_series": [12.4, 11.7, 11.0, 11.4, -6.3, -18.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.8, "np_ttm": -1.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_yield": 10.2, "ocf_yield": 10.9, "gm_median": 18.6, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -11.5, "npm_median": 11.6, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.7, "fix_assets": 20.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.11, "capex_dep": 0.18, "interest_debt": 14.3, "debt_ebitda": 7.7, "debt_ratio": 74.1, "debt_mv": 48.8, "payout": 19.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 26.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 4.8, "np_yoy": -30.9, "np_vol": 83.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["玻璃门体", 29.0], ["光伏玻璃", 14.0], ["合计特别调整", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.9, "ret_prev2_year": -16.2, "ret_ytd": 3.3, "ret_pivot": 14.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.7, "ret_60": -3.9, "ret_120": -12.8, "ret_250": -12.7, "mdd_250": -38.2, "vol_250": 49.7, "pos_52w": 73.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 65, "bondness": 22}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.2%(经营现金流/市值 10.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 0.18 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -4% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家电零部件Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 50.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 39%。", "三星新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.1个百分点。"]}}