{"F": {"ts_code": "603569.SH", "name": "长久物流", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "公路货运", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160810", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.99, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.4798, "dv_ttm": 10.8514, "total_mv": 361500.8727, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.1, 6.9, 9.1, 10.7, 12.0, 10.0], "rev_series": [40.8, 44.9, 39.6, 37.7, 40.2, 36.9], "np_series": [1.2, 0.9, 0.2, 0.7, 0.8, -0.9], "roe_series": [4.8, 3.6, 0.8, 2.6, 2.7, -3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.6, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 5.1, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 10.0, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.6, "fix_assets": 14.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.48, "capex_dep": 0.16, "interest_debt": 17.5, "debt_ebitda": 5.8, "debt_ratio": 52.7, "debt_mv": 48.5, "payout": 48.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -2.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -7.6, "np_yoy": -26.7, "np_vol": 191.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 30.7, "fwd_pe2": 19.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 62.0, "peg": 0.5, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.5, "ret_prev2_year": -42.0, "ret_ytd": -18.1, "ret_pivot": 5.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.5, "ret_60": 4.0, "ret_120": -12.8, "ret_250": -21.2, "mdd_250": -45.7, "vol_250": 32.2, "pos_52w": 61.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 41, "bondness": 82}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 48%、股息率 10.9%、营收 3 年复合 -2.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.1%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.0%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.16 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 4% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "长久物流:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.0个百分点。"]}}