{"F": {"ts_code": "603566.SH", "name": "普莱柯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "动物保健Ⅱ", "sw3": "动物保健Ⅲ", "ind": "动物保健Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.6, "pe_ttm": 25.1017, "pb": 1.4405, "dv_ttm": 5.5926, "total_mv": 366826.038, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.3, 65.4, 62.8, 61.0, 61.1, 59.9], "rev_series": [9.3, 11.0, 12.3, 12.5, 10.4, 10.9], "np_series": [2.3, 2.4, 1.7, 1.7, 0.9, 1.8], "roe_series": [13.5, 13.9, 7.6, 6.3, 3.5, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.2, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 6.5, "gm_median": 61.1, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 14.2, "roe_median": 7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.9, "fix_assets": 11.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 1.44, "capex_dep": 0.53, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 15.2, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 140.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.9, "np_cagr3": 2.0, "rev_yoy": -12.2, "np_yoy": -33.4, "np_vol": 50.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 20.1, "fwd_pe2": 17.1, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.18, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["主营业务", 33.0], ["生物制品", 23.0], ["化学药品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.3, "ret_prev2_year": -44.7, "ret_ytd": -11.9, "ret_pivot": 5.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.5, "ret_60": 7.8, "ret_120": -21.1, "ret_250": -28.2, "mdd_250": -34.4, "vol_250": 24.7, "pos_52w": 71.1}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 71, "hard": 61, "bondness": 85}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 12 亿,占总资产 38%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 61.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 4.8%,股息率 5.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 80%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 38%)和定价权(毛利率 61.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 6.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.53 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.1 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 8% / -21%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「动物保健Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 37.8 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 39.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 64%。", "普莱柯:PE 比行业中位低 12.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 21.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点。"]}}