{"F": {"ts_code": "603565.SH", "name": "中谷物流", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "航运", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200925", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.4, "pe_ttm": 12.9406, "pb": 2.3688, "dv_ttm": 5.4032, "total_mv": 2604078.244, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.0, 21.3, 22.5, 14.3, 15.1, 23.5], "rev_series": [104.2, 122.9, 142.1, 124.4, 112.6, 106.2], "np_series": [10.2, 24.0, 27.4, 17.2, 18.4, 20.0], "roe_series": [25.1, 32.3, 28.8, 17.2, 16.9, 18.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 107.4, "np_ttm": 20.1, "ocf_ttm": 34.1, "fcf_ttm": 20.6, "fcf_yield": 7.9, "ocf_yield": 13.1, "gm_median": 21.3, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 8.6, "npm_median": 18.9, "roe_median": 18.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.7, "fix_assets": 70.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.37, "capex_dep": 2.62, "interest_debt": 94.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 54.9, "debt_mv": 36.3, "payout": 87.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -9.3, "np_cagr3": -10.0, "rev_yoy": 2.2, "np_yoy": 1.1, "np_vol": 58.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 61.0, "earn_yield": 7.7, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 11.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 1.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["国内集装箱航运物流", 31.0], ["国际集装箱航运物流", 19.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.5, "ret_prev2_year": 37.9, "ret_ytd": 26.5, "ret_pivot": 113.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 19.3, "ret_60": 27.8, "ret_120": 15.3, "ret_250": 26.5, "mdd_250": -23.1, "vol_250": 32.8, "pos_52w": 91.7}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 51, "hard": 46, "bondness": 88}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 88%、股息率 5.4%、营收 3 年复合 -9.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.5 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.9%(经营现金流/市值 13.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.3%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 2.62 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.9 倍 粗算,约 61%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 26%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / 28% / 15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "中谷物流:PE 比行业中位低 4.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.4个百分点。"]}}