{"F": {"ts_code": "603556.SH", "name": "海兴电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电工仪器仪表", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.2, "pe_ttm": 18.4451, "pb": 1.7997, "dv_ttm": 3.1425, "total_mv": 1225385.784, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.5, 32.8, 38.2, 41.9, 43.9, 38.3], "rev_series": [28.1, 26.9, 33.1, 42.0, 47.2, 47.7], "np_series": [4.8, 3.1, 6.6, 9.8, 10.0, 7.3], "roe_series": [9.1, 5.8, 11.6, 15.6, 14.6, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 52.3, "np_ttm": 6.6, "ocf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 38.3, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 20.1, "roe_median": 11.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.9, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.8, "capex_dep": 2.67, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 29.9, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 53.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.9, "np_cagr3": 3.2, "rev_yoy": 24.7, "np_yoy": -16.7, "np_vol": 54.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 15.7, "fwd_pe2": 12.8, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.68, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["销售商品", 99.0], ["提供劳务", 1.0], ["合计特别调整", 0.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.3, "ret_prev2_year": 34.3, "ret_ytd": -29.2, "ret_pivot": -42.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.1, "ret_60": 10.7, "ret_120": -35.1, "ret_250": -7.7, "mdd_250": -51.1, "vol_250": 46.1, "pos_52w": 60.1}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 56, "hard": 14, "bondness": 45}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 53%、股息率 3.1%、营收 3 年复合 12.9%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.3%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 2.67 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.4 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 11% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "海兴电力:PE 比行业中位低 25.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点。"]}}