{"F": {"ts_code": "603536.SH", "name": "惠发食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "预加工食品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170613", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.04, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.8304, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 241494.4292, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.2, 15.1, 13.9, 18.1, 17.5, 18.0], "rev_series": [14.1, 16.5, 15.8, 20.0, 19.3, 14.1], "np_series": [0.2, -1.4, -1.2, 0.1, -0.2, -0.7], "roe_series": [3.5, -21.9, -22.1, 1.5, -3.5, -16.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.5, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 17.5, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": -4.9, "roe_median": -16.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.1, "fix_assets": 4.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.83, "capex_dep": 0.09, "interest_debt": 4.2, "debt_ebitda": 7.7, "debt_ratio": 65.5, "debt_mv": 17.5, "payout": 66.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -3.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.0, "np_yoy": 112.1, "np_vol": 285.0, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["丸制品", 12.0], ["油炸品", 9.0], ["供应链", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.8, "ret_prev2_year": -24.7, "ret_ytd": -9.7, "ret_pivot": 20.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.7, "ret_60": 14.6, "ret_120": -0.4, "ret_250": -0.0, "mdd_250": -47.9, "vol_250": 41.5, "pos_52w": 67.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 72, "bondness": 58}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 45%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 0.09 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 15% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "惠发食品:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.6个百分点。"]}}