{"F": {"ts_code": "603529.SH", "name": "爱玛科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "摩托车及其他", "sw3": "其他运输设备", "ind": "摩托车及其他", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210615", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.69, "pe_ttm": 12.6066, "pb": 1.9133, "dv_ttm": 5.4301, "total_mv": 1874554.1289, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.4, 11.7, 16.4, 16.5, 17.8, 18.3], "rev_series": [129.0, 154.0, 208.0, 210.4, 216.1, 250.9], "np_series": [6.0, 6.6, 18.7, 18.8, 19.9, 20.3], "roe_series": [25.7, 17.5, 32.0, 26.1, 23.7, 21.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 235.0, "np_ttm": 14.9, "ocf_ttm": 6.0, "fcf_ttm": -20.8, "fcf_yield": -11.1, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 16.5, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 4.9, "npm_median": 9.0, "roe_median": 23.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.6, "fix_assets": 82.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.85, "capex_dep": 4.24, "interest_debt": 22.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 58.4, "debt_mv": 12.1, "payout": 40.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.5, "np_cagr3": 2.8, "rev_yoy": -12.2, "np_yoy": -45.2, "np_vol": 71.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 60.0, "earn_yield": 7.9, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 10.7, "fwd_pe2": 8.8, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.49, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电动两轮车、电动三轮车、自行车及配件收入", 49.0], ["其他收入", 1.0], ["租赁收入", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -25.7, "ret_prev2_year": 75.2, "ret_ytd": -25.6, "ret_pivot": -28.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.7, "ret_60": 8.3, "ret_120": -23.2, "ret_250": -39.9, "mdd_250": -47.1, "vol_250": 28.9, "pos_52w": 60.3}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 50, "hard": 54, "bondness": 61}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 4.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.6 倍 粗算,约 60%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 8% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「摩托车及其他」18 家中位:PE 28.8 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 17.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 50%。", "爱玛科技:PE 比行业中位低 16.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.5个百分点。"]}}