{"F": {"ts_code": "603528.SH", "name": "多伦科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160503", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.36, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.4095, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 448971.5436, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.3, 39.5, 45.1, 32.8, 35.2, 31.4], "rev_series": [6.4, 7.1, 7.4, 5.3, 5.2, 4.0], "np_series": [0.8, -1.7, 0.5, -2.3, 0.1, -0.3], "roe_series": [4.7, -10.2, 3.2, -12.8, 0.3, -1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.2, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": -0.0, "gm_median": 35.2, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": -11.3, "roe_median": -1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.9, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 2.41, "capex_dep": 1.14, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 15.9, "debt_mv": 1.1, "payout": 555.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -18.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 11.9, "np_yoy": -577.8, "np_vol": 306.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["智慧车管业务", 16.0], ["智慧车管", 16.0], ["智能车检业务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.5, "ret_prev2_year": -13.3, "ret_ytd": -34.2, "ret_pivot": 3.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.8, "ret_60": -1.9, "ret_120": -26.2, "ret_250": -34.8, "mdd_250": -52.3, "vol_250": 40.3, "pos_52w": 55.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 54, "hard": 19, "bondness": 58}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 16%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.2%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.2%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.14 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -2% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "多伦科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点。"]}}