{"F": {"ts_code": "603527.SH", "name": "众源新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170907", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.84, "pe_ttm": 102.8548, "pb": 1.4756, "dv_ttm": 1.0163, "total_mv": 311899.6608, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.4, 4.5, 4.0, 3.7, 2.8, 1.2], "rev_series": [38.4, 67.8, 71.3, 75.8, 93.2, 110.5], "np_series": [0.6, 1.4, 1.4, 1.1, 1.3, 0.6], "roe_series": [6.7, 13.7, 12.7, 7.5, 6.5, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 145.9, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -9.5, "fcf_ttm": -10.4, "fcf_yield": -33.2, "ocf_yield": -30.6, "gm_median": 3.7, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 1.5, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 21.7, "fix_assets": 12.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.48, "capex_dep": 0.63, "interest_debt": 23.8, "debt_ebitda": 10.3, "debt_ratio": 62.8, "debt_mv": 76.3, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 15.7, "np_cagr3": -23.4, "rev_yoy": 73.7, "np_yoy": -34.4, "np_vol": 57.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["铜板带", 32.0], ["铜带产品", 32.0], ["铜箔", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.8, "ret_prev2_year": -10.3, "ret_ytd": -10.5, "ret_pivot": 45.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -26.0, "ret_120": -20.1, "ret_250": -16.5, "mdd_250": -42.7, "vol_250": 51.7, "pos_52w": 66.5}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 70, "hard": 35, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 102.9 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 3.7%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 10.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 3.7%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -33.2%(经营现金流/市值 -30.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.7%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 0.63 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 102.9 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -26% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "众源新材:PE 比行业中位高 82.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.8个百分点。"]}}