{"F": {"ts_code": "603520.SH", "name": "司太立", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "原料药", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160309", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.78, "pe_ttm": 183.1053, "pb": 1.5538, "dv_ttm": 3.4169, "total_mv": 384923.8922, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.0, 37.4, 24.0, 24.3, 19.4, 20.6], "rev_series": [13.7, 20.0, 21.3, 22.0, 23.5, 24.5], "np_series": [2.4, 3.2, -0.8, 0.4, -0.5, 0.1], "roe_series": [16.9, 16.2, -3.8, 2.5, -2.2, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -5.6, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 24.0, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -19.9, "npm_median": 0.4, "roe_median": 0.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.2, "fix_assets": 29.5, "goodwill_ratio": 6.8, "pb_calc": 1.55, "capex_dep": 0.87, "interest_debt": 28.5, "debt_ebitda": 7.6, "debt_ratio": 58.6, "debt_mv": 74.1, "payout": 1500.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.2, "np_yoy": 37.0, "np_vol": 141.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 29.6, "fwd_pe2": 16.6, "fwd_g1": 519.0, "fwd_g2": 79.0, "peg": 0.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["造影剂系列", 40.0], ["其他业务", 8.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.4, "ret_prev2_year": -39.2, "ret_ytd": -4.0, "ret_pivot": 24.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": -4.5, "ret_120": -8.8, "ret_250": -22.8, "mdd_250": -40.7, "vol_250": 43.3, "pos_52w": 65.0}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 41, "hard": 79, "bondness": 86}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 1500%、股息率 3.4%、营收 3 年复合 4.7%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%,稳定度 73%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -19.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 0.87 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 183.1 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -4% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "司太立:PE 比行业中位高 145.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 28.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.4个百分点。"]}}