{"F": {"ts_code": "603517.SH", "name": "ST绝味", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "休闲食品", "sw3": "熟食", "ind": "休闲食品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170317", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.0, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.1977, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 727202.28, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.0, 31.4, 25.6, 24.8, 30.5, 29.7], "rev_series": [52.8, 65.5, 66.2, 72.6, 62.6, 54.7], "np_series": [7.0, 9.8, 2.3, 3.4, 2.3, -1.9], "roe_series": [14.7, 18.4, 3.7, 5.0, 3.4, -3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 51.6, "np_ttm": -2.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 29.7, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -7.5, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.8, "fix_assets": 26.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.2, "capex_dep": 1.34, "interest_debt": 7.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 23.7, "debt_mv": 10.8, "payout": 132.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -6.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -10.8, "np_yoy": -23.2, "np_vol": 84.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 24.5, "fwd_pe2": 22.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 3.5, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["卤制食品销售", 44.0], ["其中:禽类制品", 29.0], ["供应链物流", 8.0], ["蔬菜", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -20.8, "ret_prev2_year": -37.4, "ret_ytd": -6.0, "ret_pivot": 2.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.7, "ret_60": 1.7, "ret_120": -0.9, "ret_250": -29.2, "mdd_250": -42.6, "vol_250": 31.7, "pos_52w": 71.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 54, "bondness": 58}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 24%,有息负债 8 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 1.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 2% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「休闲食品」22 家中位:PE 21.1 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 29.5% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 67%。", "ST绝味:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点。"]}}