{"F": {"ts_code": "603515.SH", "name": "欧普照明", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "照明设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "照明设备Ⅲ", "ind": "照明设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160819", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.47, "pe_ttm": 14.2521, "pb": 1.7295, "dv_ttm": 5.4775, "total_mv": 1148306.6959, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.7, 33.0, 35.7, 40.3, 39.3, 39.3], "rev_series": [79.7, 88.5, 72.7, 77.9, 71.0, 69.7], "np_series": [8.0, 9.1, 7.8, 9.2, 9.0, 9.2], "roe_series": [15.6, 16.4, 13.2, 14.5, 13.5, 13.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 69.9, "np_ttm": 8.1, "ocf_ttm": 10.1, "fcf_ttm": 6.4, "fcf_yield": 5.6, "ocf_yield": 8.8, "gm_median": 39.3, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 11.9, "roe_median": 13.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.3, "fix_assets": 13.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.73, "capex_dep": 2.39, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 27.9, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 68.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.4, "np_cagr3": 5.5, "rev_yoy": 0.7, "np_yoy": -31.1, "np_vol": 11.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 7.0, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 12.7, "fwd_pe2": 11.8, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 1.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["照明行业", 33.0], ["照明应用产品及其他", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.6, "ret_prev2_year": -0.5, "ret_ytd": -11.2, "ret_pivot": 18.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.4, "ret_60": -11.7, "ret_120": -13.4, "ret_250": -15.6, "mdd_250": -26.0, "vol_250": 25.3, "pos_52w": 74.7}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 58, "hard": 23, "bondness": 74}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 68%、股息率 5.5%、营收 3 年复合 -1.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.3%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.6%(经营现金流/市值 8.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.3%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 2.39 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.3 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -12% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「照明设备Ⅱ」14 家中位:PE 61.2 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 25.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 71%。", "欧普照明:PE 比行业中位低 46.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}