{"F": {"ts_code": "603507.SH", "name": "振江股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.41, "pe_ttm": 21.8065, "pb": 2.0524, "dv_ttm": 1.0298, "total_mv": 535451.094, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.6, 22.5, 13.9, 20.3, 19.9, 20.9], "rev_series": [19.3, 24.2, 29.0, 38.4, 39.5, 39.7], "np_series": [0.7, 1.8, 0.9, 1.8, 1.8, 1.1], "roe_series": [4.8, 11.8, 4.9, 7.9, 7.3, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 50.0, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": -8.7, "fcf_yield": -16.2, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 20.3, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.1, "fix_assets": 37.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 2.05, "capex_dep": 4.63, "interest_debt": 47.7, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 73.0, "debt_mv": 89.2, "payout": 30.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.0, "np_cagr3": 5.6, "rev_yoy": 56.1, "np_yoy": 854.7, "np_vol": 82.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 13.5, "fwd_pe2": 8.0, "fwd_g1": 61.0, "fwd_g2": 69.0, "peg": 0.2, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["新能源产品分部", 31.0], ["新能源产品", 31.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.0, "ret_prev2_year": 23.2, "ret_ytd": 12.0, "ret_pivot": 49.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.5, "ret_60": -18.1, "ret_120": -21.8, "ret_250": 1.2, "mdd_250": -45.0, "vol_250": 46.2, "pos_52w": 59.0}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 44, "hard": 61, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.8 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -16.2%(经营现金流/市值 6.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 4.63 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.8 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -18% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "振江股份:PE 比行业中位低 10.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.8个百分点。"]}}