{"F": {"ts_code": "603500.SH", "name": "祥和实业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170904", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.48, "pe_ttm": 22.1489, "pb": 3.028, "dv_ttm": 2.3207, "total_mv": 315478.5684, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.1, 27.0, 25.7, 28.4, 27.5, 32.1], "rev_series": [2.7, 4.9, 6.1, 6.4, 6.7, 8.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 1.3], "roe_series": [6.5, 7.3, 7.4, 7.2, 7.8, 13.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.4, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 27.5, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -17.4, "npm_median": 12.1, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.2, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.96, "capex_dep": 2.8, "interest_debt": 6.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 44.0, "debt_mv": 19.7, "payout": 55.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.2, "np_cagr3": 26.4, "rev_yoy": 1.6, "np_yoy": 12.4, "np_vol": 28.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 20.2, "fwd_pe2": 17.2, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.19, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["轨道交通相关产品及零部件", 21.0], ["电子元器件配件", 16.0], ["高分子改性材料", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.0, "ret_prev2_year": -11.5, "ret_ytd": -19.4, "ret_pivot": 93.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -26.5, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": -20.1, "mdd_250": -44.1, "vol_250": 48.8, "pos_52w": 68.3}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 50, "hard": 36, "bondness": 51}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.1 倍、股息率 2.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 2.80 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.1 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -26% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "祥和实业:PE 比行业中位低 4.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.2个百分点。"]}}