{"F": {"ts_code": "603499.SH", "name": "翔港科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171016", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.73, "pe_ttm": 48.2537, "pb": 6.1012, "dv_ttm": 0.4162, "total_mv": 581646.8733, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.0, 14.0, 16.8, 19.5, 24.7, 26.3], "rev_series": [4.8, 6.5, 6.6, 6.9, 8.9, 10.3], "np_series": [0.1, -0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.7, 1.2], "roe_series": [1.4, -3.1, 2.3, 1.3, 9.2, 13.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.6, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 19.5, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 2.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.9, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 6.1, "capex_dep": 1.12, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 34.4, "debt_mv": 3.6, "payout": 64.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.0, "np_cagr3": 104.2, "rev_yoy": 4.5, "np_yoy": 5.5, "np_vol": 357.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["包装容器", 61.0], ["包装印刷", 31.0], ["化妆品", 6.0], ["租赁收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.6, "ret_prev2_year": 145.1, "ret_ytd": -5.6, "ret_pivot": 68.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.6, "ret_60": 14.7, "ret_120": -20.3, "ret_250": 4.1, "mdd_250": -42.0, "vol_250": 51.7, "pos_52w": 76.6}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 44, "hard": 53, "bondness": 32}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 76%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 1.12 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.3 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 15% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "翔港科技:PE 比行业中位高 9.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}