{"F": {"ts_code": "603496.SH", "name": "恒为科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170607", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.36, "pe_ttm": 182.6881, "pb": 5.0982, "dv_ttm": 0.1118, "total_mv": 715987.7712, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.0, 35.6, 43.0, 45.8, 32.0, 29.1], "rev_series": [5.3, 6.8, 7.7, 7.7, 11.2, 10.5], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.8, 0.8, 0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [4.5, 5.4, 6.2, 6.0, 2.0, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.9, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 35.6, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 4.0, "npm_median": 7.3, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.1, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.1, "capex_dep": 0.4, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 24.1, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 22.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.7, "np_cagr3": -22.9, "rev_yoy": -12.1, "np_yoy": 23.9, "np_vol": 41.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 114.7, "fwd_pe2": 77.1, "fwd_g1": 59.0, "fwd_g2": 49.0, "peg": 2.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智能系统平台", 28.0], ["网络可视化", 22.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.5, "ret_prev2_year": -12.6, "ret_ytd": -18.0, "ret_pivot": 2.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.0, "ret_60": 4.4, "ret_120": -23.9, "ret_250": -30.3, "mdd_250": -44.3, "vol_250": 54.9, "pos_52w": 58.1}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 57, "hard": 24, "bondness": 28}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 182.7 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 114.7 倍,次年 77.1 倍,PEG 2.34。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 35.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.6%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 0.40 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 182.7 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / 4% / -24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "恒为科技:PE 比行业中位高 131.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点。"]}}