{"F": {"ts_code": "603488.SH", "name": "展鹏科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "楼宇设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170516", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.05, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.0884, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 235052.272, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.8, 25.2, 24.7, 23.7, 25.3, 16.5], "rev_series": [4.1, 4.9, 5.0, 5.0, 4.7, 5.2], "np_series": [1.0, 0.7, 0.4, 0.8, 0.1, -1.7], "roe_series": [11.4, 7.5, 4.2, 8.1, 1.0, -19.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.6, "np_ttm": -1.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -2.8, "ocf_yield": -1.4, "gm_median": 24.7, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -7.1, "npm_median": 8.3, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.5, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 7.2, "pb_calc": 3.09, "capex_dep": 2.94, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 29.1, "debt_mv": 6.8, "payout": 85.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 1.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 27.0, "np_yoy": 10.1, "np_vol": 712.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["挂件(层门装置)", 21.0], ["层门装置", 21.0], ["门机", 17.0], ["硬件集成产品", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.4, "ret_prev2_year": -22.1, "ret_ytd": 3.2, "ret_pivot": 12.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.6, "ret_60": -33.5, "ret_120": -22.9, "ret_250": -9.7, "mdd_250": -47.1, "vol_250": 52.9, "pos_52w": 61.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 20, "bondness": 51}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 29%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.8%(经营现金流/市值 -1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 2.94 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -34% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "展鹏科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}