{"F": {"ts_code": "603459.SH", "name": "红板科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20260408", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 85.29, "pe_ttm": 76.6211, "pb": 14.3175, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 6428764.4544, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 15.9, 19.0, 26.4], "rev_series": [22.0, 23.4, 27.0, 36.8], "np_series": [1.4, 1.0, 2.1, 5.4], "roe_series": [9.3, 6.9, 12.9, 26.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 40.6, "np_ttm": 8.4, "ocf_ttm": 6.9, "fcf_ttm": -6.9, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 18.1, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 7.1, "roe_median": 11.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.9, "fix_assets": 41.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 14.32, "capex_dep": 4.76, "interest_debt": 11.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 42.8, "debt_mv": 1.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 18.6, "np_cagr3": 56.6, "rev_yoy": 22.5, "np_yoy": 124.7, "np_vol": 75.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 46.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -19.2, "ret_60": 8.2, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -34.4, "vol_250": 99.9, "pos_52w": 75.5}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 44, "hard": 85, "bondness": 4}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 53%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.1%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.1%,稳定度 78%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 4.76 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 76.6 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "红板科技:PE 比行业中位高 11.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.0个百分点。"]}}